来自英国纳税人联盟的信息资料苏格兰独立后面临的财政挑战

来自英国纳税人联盟的信息资料

苏格兰独立后面临的财政挑战

WithScottish independence now back on the table, Scottish taxpayers will bewondering what impact such a move could have on the country’s fiscal position.

随着苏格兰独立议题现在重回谈判桌，苏格兰纳税人会想知道，这一举措将对国家财政状况产生怎样的影响。

TheScottish government’s fiscal framework is currently managed in agreement withHM Treasury. This underpins the tax and welfare spending powers that have beendevolved. If Scotland were to become independent, it could enjoy both freedomsand responsibilities outside this current framework.

目前苏格兰政府财政体制框架与英国财政部的管理模式一致。这为已经下放的税收和福利支出权奠定了基础。如果苏格兰独立，它就可以在目前的体制框架外享有自由并承担责任。

Anindependent Scotland would start life with a fiscal deficit considerably largerthan that of any other European country. Its high level of public spendingwould no longer be funded, and its tax revenues would fall well short.

苏格兰一旦独立，初期的财政赤字会大大超过其他欧洲国家。其高额的公共开支不会再有资金支持，税收收入也会严重不足。

Thedeficit could potentially be funded by borrowing, but given the weak fiscalposition and Scotland's inherited share of UK debt, such borrowing would beexpensive. The government would be forced to impose substantial spending cutsand/or tax increases, with the political preferences of the currentadministration suggesting a strong emphasis on tax rises despite their damagingeffect on economic growth.

苏格兰的财政赤字有可能通过借款弥补，但因其财政状况不佳，还需承担英国政府债务中的相应份额，导致借款成本将会很高。苏格兰政府将被迫大幅削减开支并（或）增税。而且本届政府的政治倾向表明，尽管增税会严重损害经济增长，但他们仍将力推此事。

Conversely,remaining within the Union and the current fiscal framework agreed with theWestminster government preserves a status quo involving considerable fiscaldeficit and excessive spending levels.

相反，如果苏格兰继续留在欧盟和与威斯敏斯特政府商定的现行财政体制框架内，就会维持巨额财政赤字和财政支出过度增长的现状。

Aswith other major constitutional questions, the TaxPayers’ Alliance takes noview on Scottish independence. But the reality of Scotland’s fiscal positionmust be clear to both those who want Scotland to leave the UK and those thatsupport the status quo.

与其他重大宪法问题一样，纳税人联盟在苏格兰独立问题上不持任何观点。但那些支持苏格兰脱离英国的人和希望维持现状的人，都必须清楚地了解苏格兰的现实财政状况。

Scotland'sfiscal deficit remains high and excessive by international standards: at 8.6per cent of GDP last year, it was over 14 times the Euro area average, andhigher than any individual OECD member country anywhere.

按照国际标准，苏格兰的财政赤字依然很高，而且有些过高。去年，苏格兰财政赤字占其国内生产总值（GDP）的8.6%，是欧元区平均水平的14倍以上，也高于其他经合组织成员国。

Theposition has deteriorated even further through the covid-19 pandemic, with thisyear’s deficit likely to reach 25 per cent of GDP, and set to remain at or above10 per cent until at least mid-decade.

这种状况在新冠疫情期间进一步恶化，今年苏格兰的财政赤字可能会达到GDP的25%，且在未来十年的中期之前仍保持在10%或以上。

WithScandinavian levels of spending, to balance the books an independent Scotlandwould need to increase taxes by at least 10 per cent of GDP. That would beequivalent to raising the basic rate of income tax to 46 pence in the pound orVAT to 49 per cent.

独立后的苏格兰，要想维持斯堪的纳维亚国家的支出水平，并实现收支平衡，增税额至少要达到GDP的10%。这就相当于将所得税的基本税率提高到每英镑46便士，或将增值税的基本税率提高到49%。

Scotland'sgeneral government financial deficit has recovered more slowly than countrieswhich were worse affected by the 2008 crash. This includes Greece, Ireland andSpain.

苏格兰政府总体财政赤字的弥补速度，比希腊、爱尔兰、西班牙等受2008年金融危机严重冲击的国家还要慢。

Thedeficit is driven by public spending that has long been excessive relative toboth tax revenues and spending levels elsewhere in the UK: Scotland’s percapita public spending remains around 20 per cent higher than England's.

公共支出是财政赤字的驱动因素。与英国其他地区的税收收入和支出水平相比，苏格兰的公共支出长期过高，人均公共支出比英格兰地区高出约20%。

NorthSea revenues are not a realistic solution: Scotland ran a deficit even when oilprices exceeded $100 per barrel, and the oil fields are now fast depleting.

北海地区的收入并非现实的解决方案。苏格兰即使在油价超过每桶100美元时，也出现了赤字，现在油田正被快速耗尽。

Anindependent Scotland could attempt to fund its deficit by borrowing, but anyworkable independence agreement with the UK would require Scotland to carry itsshare of existing UK government debt obligations. Scotland's share of the UKgovernment's total net liabilities – including borrowing – would be around £300billion, or roughly twice the size of its GDP.

独立后的苏格兰可以尝试通过借款弥补赤字，但要想与英国达成任何可行的独立协议，苏格兰还需要承担其在英国政府现有债务中的份额。在英国政府净负债总额（包括借款）中，苏格兰所占份额约为3000亿英镑，约为其GDP的两倍。

Debtmarkets would demand a robust fiscal consolidation plan, backed by an immediateand credible demonstration of intent, with significant spending cuts and/or taxincreases. The current Scottish government’s preference for Scandinavian levelsof social spending would likely mean an emphasis on tax rises.

苏格兰债务市场需要政府实施强有力的财政整顿计划，以政府直接信用背书为支持，大幅削减支出和/或增加税收。然而，当前苏格兰政府倾向于斯堪的纳维亚模式的社会支出水平，这可能意味着增税才是他们的关注重点。

44per cent of Scottish income tax payers already pay higher rates than elsewherein the UK. Further increases on the scale required would punish taxpayers andseriously undermine economic growth prospects.

目前苏格兰44%的所得税纳税人负担的税率已经高于英国其他地区。若进一步按需增税，会对纳税人执行惩罚性税收，势必对苏格兰的经济增长前景造成严重损害。

来源：https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/fiscal_challenges_facing_an_independent_scotland