来自英国纳税人联盟的信息资料 简报：真实的国债

来自英国纳税人联盟的信息资料

简报：真实的国债

Thechancellor recently unveiled his budget for the coming financial year. Thefigures from the Office for Budget Responsibility showed the national debt willincrease to £2.5 trillion next year. Yet this is only part of the picture withregard to the UK’s debt.

财政大臣最近公布了下一财政年度的预算。预算责任办公室发布的数据表明，明年国债将增至2.5万亿英镑。然而，这只是英国国债的一部分。

Afuller picture of the UK government’s liabilities should be regularly reported:the real national debt. This incorporates areas of future spending which arenot formally recognised in either the whole of government accounts or themonthly public sector finances bulletin published by the Office for NationalStatistics (ONS). The basic state pension and many public sector workers’ pensionsare not formally counted as a liability, since they are only recognised whenthey fall due. Yet these two combined are likely to reach £6.8 trillion in thenext financial year.

英国政府应定期公布政府债务的全面信息，也就是真实的国债。这包括在政府统一账户或国家统计局（ONS）发布的公共部门财政月报中未正式确认的政府未来支出领域。鉴于国家基本养老金和许多公共部门员工的养老金在到期时才确认，所以尚未正式计入负债。但这两项支出的合计数在下个财政年度可能会达到6.8万亿英镑。

Comparedto many other rich countries, the UK is fortunate to have much longer datedgovernment issued debt; almost 40 per cent of conventional gilts mature in morethan 15 years. This means the modified duration – the change in the value of adebt security relative to a change in interest rates – is more manageable forthe UK government. The cost of borrowing and servicing debt has also declined markedly,with many short-term gilt yields at or slightly above zero per cent.

与其他富裕国家相比，英国幸运的是政府债券期限更长；近40%的常规金边债券期限在15年以上。这意味着，调整后的债券存续期内，债券价值相对于利率的变化而变化，更便于英国政府管理。借贷成本、偿债成本也显著下降，许多短期金边债券收益率为零或略高于零。

Butthis does not mean that borrowing and servicing debt will remain cheap forever.Given the size of the liabilities, they present a challenge to the long-termstability of the public finances – for example, if interest rates were to riseand if the public sector workforce continues to grow. A plan for prudentmanagement of all liabilities – and not just public sector net debt – must bean urgent priority for the government after the pandemic.

但这并不意味着借贷成本和偿债成本会永远维持在较低水平。政府的负债规模对公共财政的长期稳定性也提出了挑战，例如，如果利率上升、公共部门员工总数继续增长，该如何维持公共财政的稳定性。疫情爆发后，制定针对所有债务而不是仅公共部门净债务的审慎管理计划，必须成为政府的当务之急。

Keyfindings

重要发现

In2021-22 the real national debt will be £9.6 trillion. This is almost twice theeconomic output of the continent of Africa, which is £4.9 trillion.

2021至2022年，真实国债将达到9.6万亿英镑，接近非洲大陆经济产出4.9万亿英镑的两倍。

Thereal national debt is equivalent to more than four times the size of the UKeconomy, or 423 per cent of forecast nominal GDP.

真实国债相当于英国经济规模的四倍多，或预测的名义国内生产总值的423%。

Ona per household basis, the real national debt will equate to £344,216. On a perperson basis, it is £143,382.

按户核算，平均每户纳税人负担的真实国债将相当于344,216英镑。按单个纳税人核算，平均每个纳税人负担的真实国债为143,382欧元。

Thereal national debt is made up of public sector net debt (PSND), unfunded statepension liabilities, unfunded public sector pension scheme liabilities, privatefinance initiative (PFI) and nuclear decommissioning.

真实国债由公共部门净债务（PSND）、无资金准备的国家养老金负债、无资金准备的公共部门养老金计划负债、私人融资计划（PFI）和核退役费用组成。

Theofficial national debt dramatically understates taxpayer liabilities. The realnational debt is more than four times larger than this year’s forecast officialnational debt.

官方公布的国债总额大大低估了纳税人承担的负债。真实的国债是今年官方预测国债总额的四倍多。

来源：https://www.taxpayersalliance.com/briefing_the_real_national_debt